In response to rising water demand and fluctuating rainfall patterns, the Panama Canal has implemented operational and commercial adjustments to guarantee a fresh water supply for both human consumption and for transits during the next dry season, which runs from December 2023 to April 2024. This will have a major impact on small yacht transits.

Published 7 months ago

As reported in July, the Panama Canal is suffering major water shortages. The year 2023 has been particularly dry, according to Panama Canal statistics, primarily due to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon.

The rainy season in Panama typically begins in May and ends in November. However, during years when the El Niño phenomenon is active, such as this one, the onset of rains can be delayed, resulting in a prolonged dry season.

The El Niño phenomenon also negatively impacts evaporation in water bodies, significantly affecting critical sites like the Gatun and Alhajuela lakes, which rely on rainfall and river inflows.

Water Intakes and Consumption

Currently, the Gatun reservoir receives a daily inflow from rainfall and river flow amounting to seven hm³. However, the combined outflows from Canal operations, evaporation, human consumption, and industry amount to ten hm³. This results in a daily deficit of three hm³. In a year with typical rainfall, the water inflow would average 15 hm³ per day.

This means that for the year 2023, water consumption has surpassed Gatun lake intakes from rainfall and rivers, hence the Canal has had to maintain acceptable levels for operations through water accumulated during last year’s rainy season and transfers from the Alhajuela lake.

To offer some perspective: three cubic hectometers is equal to the water volume in 1,200 Olympic-sized swimming pools. This daily shortfall has caused the Gatun reservoir’s level to drop seven feet below its anticipated level for this time of year, marking the lowest level ever recorded during a rainy season in the reservoir’s history.

Water Conservation

The reduction in precipitation in the Canal watershed during the entire year has forced the Panama  Canal Authorities (ACP) to progressively implement water conservation measures during most of 2023. The current level of Gatun Lake and the rainfall projection for the remainder of the 2023 rainy season indicate that these measures will likely continue during the upcoming dry season (December 2023 to April 2024) and into the 2024 rainy season and may possibly force the ACP to impose additional restrictions.

Impact for Yacht Transits

Starting on November 1st, there will be a reduction in transit availability for Regular, Supers, and Neopanamax merchant vessels. The Canal transit capacity to will be reduced to 31 vessels per day of which 30 of them will transit under Booked condition (the booking system is only available to boats of 125 feet in length or more). This means than only one unbooked vessel will transit per day.

Boats less than 125 feet LOA are called Handlines, which means they do not use Panama Canal Locomotives or Panama Canal Linehandlers. Because of their size these vessels can not be booked for a specific day of Canal transit or request a daylight transit. They need to transit unbooked based on Canal delays at the moment.

The ACP advise that while these measures are in effect, yachts, and other small craft up to 38.1 m (125 feet) LOA will likely experience extensive delays.

Well known agent Erick Galvez of Centenario & Co. explains; “There will be only 31 flushes of water per day between north and southbound traffic, with priority given to the 30 booked merchant vessels. This means less capacity in the chamber for yachts, if they tandem regular merchant vessels. The chances of having two regular merchant vessels in the same chamber are 40%, as per my point of view.”

Rallies

Special lockages, typically used for a group of yachts in the same chamber without a merchant vessel (most often used for rallies), will no longer be available. Both the ARC and Oyster rallies, each consisting of approximately 30 boats, will not receive special lockage treatment. They will queue up as regular customers. The WorldARC Rally transit program is between 1-10 February, the Oyster Rally from 15-20 February, plus, there is also a third rally scheduled for May.

Erick comments, “In previous years, starting in February after the first rally, we typically experienced a three-week delay combined with limited advisor availability and holidays. However, this year, due to the current restrictions on merchant vessels, the waiting times may be longer than usual.” He recommends “sailors who have the flexibility should plan their transit before December 31, 2023, to avoid the progressive toll increase set for the following year, and avoid the months that rallies are transiting.”

Delays

Alex of Associated Yacht Services adds, “Significant delays will be expected for small boats even if they come towards the end of this year, but for sure next year. I just had a meeting with the Canal and no special lockages will be available and delays of easily 3 weeks and more could be expected by the time boats actually arrive in Panama and commence transit. Honestly it is hard to say what the crystal ball says for next year, but at this moment with the present information long waiting lines for small boats will be expected.”

Erick recommends, “For those planning to transit in 2024, it is advisable to contact their respective agents or begin the approval process now so they can be ready when they arrive. However, please be aware that the usual factors, such as high arrivals, advisor availability, rallies, and Carnival holidays, may impact the transit schedule. This means being flexible with guest and family timelines, as many factors can affect adherence to specific dates.”

Note: Although boats over 125 feet in length can book a transit in advance, they will also expect to face delays if their transit is not booked in time and prior to November 1st, 2023. After this date transits will only be able to be booked as far as 90 days before transit and it’s expected that getting a booking slot will not be easy.

There is some good news:

• There will be more Canal Advisors available in a regular program, with six advisors per day.
• Since the pandemic, the ACP have introduced the option of scheduling yachts for one-day transits, starting early in the morning and completing the same day. This will help reduce the backlog of yachts during the high season.
• Regular merchant vessels will be booked in advance, ensuring that there will consistently be space available for tandem yachts.
• While the rainy season has been shorter, rainfall is anticipated between October and December to hopefully achieve a lake level of 85-86 feet. This change in the lake level will significantly impact the overall scenario.

If you plan to transit the Panama Canal this season, it is recommended that your reach out to your agent as soon as possible to initiate the process and ensure that you arrive before the first rally.

Our thanks to Erick of Centenario & Co. and Alex of Associated Yacht Services for their advice and information.

Related Links:

• Read Noonsite’s Panama Canal Transit Guide
• Panama Canal Website
• ACP Advisory to Shipping – 09 October, 2023
• Panama Canal Agents on Noonsite