Tropical Storm Melissa has been upgraded to Hurricane status and is expected to rapidly intensify into a Major Hurricane by the end of the weekend bringing life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides into parts of southern Haiti and Jamaica according to the US National Hurricane Center.

Published 2 days ago, updated 14 hours ago

Jamaica to Bear Brunt of Hurricane Melissa

Update from the National Hurricane Centre Saturday October 25 2pm EDT

Jamaica is expected to receive the worst of Hurricane Melissa with extreme rainfall, wind damage and storm surge. Melissa could make landfall on Jamaica late Monday or early Tuesday. Haiti is also at risk of destructive floods and landslides.  A hurricane warning is effect for Jamaica, where strong winds are expected to begin tonight. Southern Haiti is under a hurricane watch.

Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning

The US National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica as Tropical Storm Melissa continues slowly churning through the Caribbean before strengthening into a Hurricane this weekend.

A National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory issued at 0200 EDT Friday October 24 reported that Tropical Storm Melissa was situated in the Caribbean Sea, 150 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica and 270 miles southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti.

The Advisory said “Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend.  Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

“The storm has been crawling and moving erratically,” the NHC said.  Melissa was expected to remain over open water, but move closer to Jamaica and south-western Haiti.

Storm Surge and High Surf

The NHC warned coastal flooding was likely along the coast of Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. “However, there is a potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa’s slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how high the storm surge could reach.”

Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days.

Rapid Intensification Possible

The Accuweather website is reporting that the exceptionally warm waters (in the Caribbean), reaching hundreds of feet deep, will act like jet fuel — providing extra energy for Melissa, according to  AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.   “The warmest water in the Atlantic basin is in the central Caribbean, in the direct path of this storm. Rapid intensification into a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question this weekend, he said.

“The storm and eventual major hurricane’s slow movement means many hours of torrential rain, intense winds and erosive surf.  A foot of rainfall or more could cause catastrophic flooding across parts of Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, depending on the exact track of Melissa.  People in the path of this storm need to prepare for the risk of catastrophic impacts.”

13th Named Storm

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and the first named storm to form in the Caribbean this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had predicted an above-normal season with 13 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to nine were forecast to become hurricanes, including two to five major hurricanes, which pack winds of 111mph or greater.  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November.

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Related News:

• Melissa Becomes a Hurricane – Expected to Rapidly Intensify (CNN)
• National Hurricane Center TS Melissa Advisory
• New Troubling Tendency for Atlantic Storms (CNN)
• Tropical Storm Melissa May Reach Category 5 (Accuweather)
• Tropical Storm Melissa Lumbers Through the Caribbean (The Guardian)
• NOAA Predictions for 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Related Links:

• National Hurricane Center
• Noonsite Weather Resources

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This content was compiled by Noonsite from various sources.

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