The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has upgraded their outlook for the rest of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to an “above normal” level of activity from a “near normal” level.

Published 9 months ago

The NOAA 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook released earlier this month now includes a 70% chance of 14-21 named storms, of which six to eleven could become hurricanes and two to five could become major hurricanes. The updated outlook also states that current conditions are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event.

The Climate Prediction Center, which is a division of the National Weather Service, say the increased prediction is due to current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm sea surface temperatures.

The UK Met Office has also upgraded its outlook for the rest of the 2023 season, saying the most likely number of major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is now six, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range three to nine. The 1991-2020 long-term average is three.   The May 2023 forecast was for three to seven major hurricanes.

Eight Named Tropical Storms Already

Tropical Storm Franklin, the seventh named storm of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, unleashed heavy floods and landslides in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday August 23 after making landfall in the country’s southern region.

After battering the Dominican Republic and traveling over the open waters of the Atlantic as a tropical storm, Franklin has now strengthened into a hurricane.

Swells generated by Hurricane Franklin are expected to begin affecting Bermuda by Sunday night, August 27. These swells are also likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions later this weekend into early next week along portions of the U.S. East Coast.

An eighth named storm, Gert, dissipated earlier in the week.

Season Started Early

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season began surprisingly early on January 16, when the National Hurricane Center issued a special tropical weather outlook for a low-pressure system north of Bermuda. This system became an unnamed subtropical storm southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, which made landfall on January 17 near Louisbourg, Nova Scotia before dissipating over eastern Quebec the next day.

Then, on the first official day of hurricane season, a tropical depression formed off the west coast of Florida, over the Gulf of Mexico on June 1. This strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene the following day, bringing several inches of rainfall across South Florida before dissipating north of Cuba.

Later that month, Tropical Storm Bret formed on June 19, east of the southern Windward Islands. It intensified as it headed toward the Lesser Antilles. It passed north of Barbados and directly over St. Vincent before the then weakening storm passed north of Aruba.

Around the same time, a tropical depression was forming east of the Lesser Antilles, which became a tropical depression on June 22. It then strengthened into Tropical Storm Cindy on June 23. However, the storm began weakening and dissipated on June 26, north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Another disturbance near Bermuda formed on July 10 and was classified as Subtropical Storm Don on July 14. This system became one of the longest-lasting on record to traverse the Atlantic Ocean during the month of July. It came in fifth, just behind Hurricane Emily in 2005. Don even briefly reached hurricane status—the first of the season—on July 22 before weakening the following day and transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone on July 24.

Although cyclone formation can occur any time of the year, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, when most tropical cyclones tend to form in the Atlantic.

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Related News:

• NOAA Releases Updated 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
• NOAA Satellites Monitor Increased Storm Activity in the Atlantic and Pacific
• UK Met Office 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Update
• Tropical Storm Franklin Strengthens into Hurricane (CBS News)
• Tropical Storm Franklin batters Dominican Republic (CBS News)
• Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023:  Near Normal Activity Predicted (Noonsite)

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Related Links:

• Noonsite Cruising Resources:  Weather
• NOAA National Hurricane Center
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center
• UK Met Office
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
• Yale Climate Connections

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