Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Could we see an increase now El Nino has ended?

August 8, 2019 – NOAA announced today that the current El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has ended and neutral conditions have returned. This now increases the possibility of above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year.

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The peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season are now underway (August to October) and although so far the season has only seen two named storms, NOAA forecasters predict a more lively season ahead.

“El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it’s gone, we could see a busier season ahead,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “This evolution, combined with the more conducive conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year.”

The increased likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has risen to 45% (from a 30% prediction in May). 

The number of predicted storms is also greater.

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The six-month hurricane season ends on Nov. 30. 

Noonsite has not independently verified this information.

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