Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service have released their outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season and are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. 

Published 6 days ago, updated 3 days ago

Source:  NOAA

60% Chance of Above Normal Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and NOAA forecasters are predicting a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to five major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”

Factors influencing NOAA’s predictions

NOAA says the season is expected to be above normal, due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

Improved hurricane analysis and forecasts

NOAA will improve its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:

• The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, will undergo an upgrade that is expected to result in another 5% improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts that will help forecasters provide more accurate watches and warnings.
• The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare.
• The Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two weeks to three weeks, to provide additional time for preparation and response.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2025 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

US National Weather Service: Public Comment Sought on Discontinuation of Service
The National Weather Service (NWS), a division of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is currently asking for public comment on the proposed discontinuation of the condensed versions of offshore marine forecast products. Find out more here.

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Related News:

• NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
• Colorado State University – 2025 Hurricane Season Forecasting
• Yale Climate Connections:  Forecasters Predict Another Active Season

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Related Links:

• Noonsite Cruising Resources:  Weather
• Colorado State University Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting
• Yale Climate Connections
• Accuweather
• NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center

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