A critical source of high-quality hurricane forecasting data will be permanently discontinued from June 30th, 2025, when the U.S. Department of Defense terminates the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP).

Published 4 weeks ago

The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) provides essential real-time microwave data from three active weather satellites.  The program’s termination of data products could lead to dangerous declines in the quality of hurricane forecasts, especially as the termination comes in the middle of the 2025 hurricane season according to media reports.

The decision is expected to significantly degrade hurricane forecasting capabilities, particularly concerning rapid intensification and accurate storm positioning according to metereologists.

Key Points and What This Means for Sailors:

 1.  Reduced Forecast Accuracy, Especially for Rapid Intensification:

• The DMSP satellites provide roughly half of all microwave scans crucial for “seeing” beneath hurricane clouds and discerning the storm’s internal structure.
• This microwave data is vital for identifying rapid intensification (RI) – when a tropical storm quickly strengthens into a major hurricane in a matter of hours. Without this data, forecasters will have a significantly harder time predicting these dangerous, sudden increases in wind speed.
• This may mean less warning for rapidly intensifying storms. Be prepared for faster-than-anticipated changes in storm strength, potentially leaving less time for securing vessels or seeking shelter.

2.  Increased Risk of “Sunrise Surprise”:

• Microwave data is particularly valuable at night when traditional visible and infrared satellites are less effective at revealing internal storm details.
• The loss increases the risk of a “sunrise surprise,” where a storm’s significant organization or intensification overnight is only fully realized with the first light of day.
• Overnight developments in storms may be less accurately captured. Maintain heightened vigilance and consider more conservative safety margins, especially during nighttime hours in proximity to a developing system.

3.  Poorer Storm Track Forecasts:

• Microwave data is used to “fix” or accurately position the center of storms, especially weaker systems where the eye isn’t well-defined.
• Small errors in initial storm positioning can lead to “outsized forecast errors” in track predictions several days out.
• Expect increased uncertainty in storm track forecasts, particularly for weaker systems and in the 4-5 day outlook. Do not rely solely on the exact forecast track; consider the cone of uncertainty and potential deviations.

4.  Impact on Hurricane Intensity Estimation Tools:

• AI-driven neural networks, like DMINT, which are crucial for estimating storm intensity, heavily rely on the now-discontinued microwave data.
• The overall quality and reliability of intensity estimations, especially when hurricane hunter aircraft are not available, will likely decrease.

5.   Data Scarcity:

• While other microwave data sources exist (e.g., NASA, Japan), the DMSP satellites provided approximately 50% of the total available microwave data. This means data availability will be significantly cut, leading to longer gaps between scans.
• Hurricane hunting aircraft also provide vital data but are limited in their coverage, especially in the Pacific.
• A new satellite (WSF-M) was launched in April 2024 but its data is not yet available to forecasters.
• Forecasters will be working with less frequent and less comprehensive data. This directly translates to greater challenges in providing timely and precise updates.

Current Atlantic Outlook:

As of late June, forecast models indicate a quiet Atlantic basin for at least the next week, with no development expected. However, this immediate calm does not mitigate the long-term concerns regarding the degradation of forecasting tools for the remainder of the hurricane season and beyond.

This summary is based on information from various sources, including news reports and statements.  For more detailed information see the following links:

For more information:

• Critical Hurricane Forecast Tool Abrubtly Terminated – Eye on the Tropics
• Trump Terminates Satellite Data Crucial to Hurricane Forecasting – E&E News by Politico
• NOAA Service Notice

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Related Links:

• National Hurricane Center
• Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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Noonsite has not independently verified this information.

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