South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season: Higher Risk for Vanuatu and New Caledonia
Forecasters in the South Pacific are expecting normal to below normal activity in most areas for the 2025/2026 tropical cyclone season but say the risk of Tropical Cyclone impact could be higher near the Coral Sea, and around New Caledonia and Vanuatu.
Published 2 hours ago
Five to Seven Named Tropical Cyclones Expected
In their Tropical Cyclone (TC) season outlook, Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) say five to nine named tropical cyclones could occur in the Southwest Pacific from November 2025-April 2026. Between two to four severe TCs reaching category three or higher may occur anywhere across the region.The long-term average number of named tropical cyclones per season between 1991-2020 is around nine.
Tropical cyclones can have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific. ESNZ said that for the 2025/2026 season, significant differences are expected between the western and eastern halves of the basin.
The risk of impact from a tropical cyclone is expected to be higher near the Coral Sea, and around New Caledonia and Vanuatu, as illustrated in the image below. Normal to reduced risk is anticipated for the central part of the basin and reduced risk is expected for the eastern part of the basin. Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest TC activity with an average of two or three TCs passing nearby each year.
- Normal or elevated activity: Vanuatu, New Caledonia and Northern New Zealand.
- Near normal activity: Fiji.
- Normal or reduced activity: Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Tuvalu, Tokelau, and Wallis & Futuna.
- Reduced activity: Samoa, American Samoa, Niue, Society Islands, Southern Cook Islands and Austral Islands.
- Activity unlikely: Marquesas, Kiribati, Northern Cook Islands, Tuamotu Archipelago, and Pitcairn Islands.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation outlook
ESNZ said the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which comprises La Niña, neutral, and El Niño phases, plays an important role in year-to-year regional TC development and spatial coverage and is a key factor in the 2025/2026 outlook.
As of early October 2025, sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean are below average and near La Niña thresholds.
Atmospheric circulation patterns related to ENSO over French Polynesia and northern Australia indicate neutral ENSO conditions as of early October 2025.
Oceanic and atmospheric forecasts for ENSO suggest weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions have an 85% chance of emerging by October-December 2025. La Niña conditions, should they develop, are likely to persist through early 2026, with deterioration of the event during the back half of the TC season in February-April 2026.
The progress of ENSO and TC activity will continue to be tracked with an update to this guidance in January 2026.
Activity Decreasing Near Australia
The Australian region is primed for severe tropical cyclones during the 2025/2026 season despite an ongoing trend of reduced tropical cyclone activity over Australian waters in recent decades according to the Weatherzone website.
Australia’s tropical cyclone season officially runs from the start of November to the end of April. During this six-month period, the Australian region usually sees around 9 to 10 tropical cyclones, with about five of these becoming severe tropical cyclones (category three or higher) and four systems making landfall.
However, the number of tropical cyclones that form in the Australian region each season has decreased in recent decades, said the Weatherzone report.
Since 1980, the total number of tropical cyclones per season has been reduced by about one system every 11 years. However, there has not been a similar drop in the number of severe tropical cyclones, which means the proportion of systems that become severe tropical cyclones (category three or higher) in each season has increased.
Seasonal tropical cyclone numbers are also influenced by El Niño and La Niña, with La Niña years typically producing more tropical cyclones near Australia and El Niño years often bringing fewer Australian cyclones.
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Related News:
- ESNZ South-West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025/2026
- Weatherzone Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Australia 2025/2026
- Australia Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Season
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Related Links:
- Noonsite Weather Resources
- Bureau of Meteorology Australia
- Earth Sciences New Zealand
- MetService New Zealand
- Weatherzone Australia
- Fiji Meteorological Service
- Port Denarau Marina Cyclone Procedures
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