Delay Due to El Niño Weather Risks
The Polynesian Voyaging Society is revising the Western Pacific portion of the Moananuiākea Voyage in response to confirmed elevated weather risks caused by El Niño and the changing climate. The revision will add one year to the Moananuiākea Voyage.
According to a report issued in early July by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, there is a 97% probability that El Niño conditions will continue through Spring 2027, an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño in October – December 2026 and a very high probability that it would rank among the strongest El Niño events in 75 years.
The probabilities all increase the likelihood and risk of dangerous weather and sailing conditions across the Western North Pacific.
The Polynesian Voyaging Society CEO and Pwo Navigator Nainoa Thompson spoke with the Climate Prediction Center forecasters to get more clarity before revising the sail plan.
“Nature is telling us what to do. We go when nature allows us to go, when nature gives us permission to go. And I do think our ability to be sailing for 50 years was being disciplined to that,” Thompson said. “So I don’t see it as postponement. I don’t see it as delay. I see it as being respectful, paying attention, being humble with nature, especially now when the weather is what I would characterize as extreme.”
The sail plan was for the voyaging canoes Hōkūleʻa and Hikianalia to sail as far north as Hokkaido, Japan in 2027. But, to ensure the safety of its crew, Polynesian Voyaging Society leadership has decided to keep the canoes in the southern hemisphere of the Pacific Ocean, and then proceed to Northeast Asia in 2028. The canoes have been in New Zealand since November 2025.
Over the next 17 months, the canoes will visit Fiji in Oct. 2026 to participate in the Pre-Climate Change Conference international ocean and climate meetings, which precede the annual UN Climate Change Conference.
They will then make return visits to New Zealand, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia. Additional planned stops in 2027 will include American Sāmoa, Sāmoa, Tonga, the region of Melanesia and Micronesia.
Hōkūleʻa celebrates 50 years of voyaging
Fifty years after Hōkūleʻa completed her historic maiden voyage from Hawaiʻi to Tahiti and back, nearly 200 major supporters, partners and crew members gathered in Oahu, Hawaii in July 2026 to celebrate the legacy of the voyage that forever changed Hawaiʻi.
Since the first voyage in 1976, Hōkūleʻa has sailed more than 300,000 nautical miles, visited dozens of countries and territories, trained generations of navigators and crew, and inspired millions of people worldwide through her message of cultural resilience, environmental stewardship, and mālama honua, caring for Island Earth.
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Related News:
- Pacific: Circumnavigation Using Traditional Wayfinding
- Polynesian Voyaging Society to Launch Moananuiakea Voyage
- Polynesian Voyaging Society Plans Four-Year Circumnavigation (Cruising World)
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