Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Maintains Below Normal Prediction

Forecast for Below-Normal Activity Remains

With the climatological peak of hurricane season approaching in early September, NOAA’s prediction for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin remains.

Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service updated the number of expected named storms to 7-13 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 2-6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). These ranges cover the entire season from June 1 through November 30 and are inclusive of the two tropical storms that have already formed.

NOAA forecasters predict a 75% chance for below-normal activity, with a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of above-normal activity. This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.

In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Only Gulf storms in the Atlantic Basin so far

To date, the 2026 season has produced two named tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, and no hurricanes. Tropical Storm Arthur was the first named storm of the Atlantic season. Forming in mid-June in the warm Gulf of America waters off the Texas coast, Arthur brought record rainfall to portions of Louisiana and spawned tornadoes along the Gulf coast. Bertha also formed in the Gulf, originating south of the Florida panhandle before making landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana.

Hurricane outlooks in other ocean basins

Although El Nino tends to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, it can enhance storm development in the Pacific. NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season remains unchanged with 15-22 named storms, which is above average. So far there have been seven named storms, of which two became hurricanes, including one major hurricane.

An above-normal season is also expected in the Central Pacific basin, with 5-13 named storms and tropical depressions.

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NOAA Maintains Prediction for Below Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

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