2009 Hurricane Predictions

Created by sue. Last modified on 2009-04-15 19:42:35
Topic: Weather

As reported today in Cruising Compass

Colorado State is forecasting 12 Named Storms, six of those Storms becoming Hurricanes and two of those Hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes. The current La Nina conditions are expected to transition into at least neutral conditions and very possibly El Nino conditions by the later parts of the Hurricane Season. If El Nino conditions do develop, it would increase levels of vertical wind shear and thus decrease levels of Atlantic hurricane activity.

In his annual report on sailingscuttlebutt.com, Rob Lightbown, of Crown Weather Services wrote: "Tropical Storm Risk's 2009 Hurricane Season Forecast: They are calling for an active hurricane season: 15 named storms, about eight of those storms becoming hurricanes and about three to four of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. The major reason why TSR's numbers are higher is because of slower than normal trade winds from July to September over the Main Development Region for hurricanes over the Atlantic. Trade winds are forecast to be about 1 mph slower than average in this region, which could allow for more storms to form and also allow the oceans to heat up due to reduced evaporational cooling.

Read his entire Tropical Weather Discussion here.