El Nino and Pacific Passage Planning: Responses

Created by doina. Last modified on 2007-01-15 22:30:06
Contributors:
Topic: Weather
Countries: Easter Island, French Polynesia, Panama, Pitcairn Island

I, along with hundreds of other cruisers I suspect, have been reading with interest the NOAA reports on the increasing strength of the El Nino effect in the eastern Pacific. There are forecasts and summations about its effect on the weather, but I have found it very difficult to find information that relates directly to cruisers planning a Pacific crossing in 2007.

From what I gather, cruisers can expect counter-currents, lower than average easterly winds, and more westerly winds on the Panama-Marquesas crossing, depending on the strength of the El Nino at the time of the crossing. What would be really useful is if some of the more experienced cruisers out there could provide their feedback about previous El Nino years and how their passages across the Pacific were affected.

It's not very scientific I know, but at least it would provide some level of understanding how difficult (or even dangerous) conditions can become during an El Nino year. In addition, if anyone has experience of alternative routes during an El Nino year that proved to be more "successful" than the traditional Coconut Milk run, that would be very useful. I'm thinking for example, of Easter Island/Pitcairn as a route that might prove less taxing (in terms of weather)

I'd be very interested to hear from any "salty sea dogs" that have any relevant experience that would help fill out what seems to be a gap in published information about El Nino and the Pacific Crossing.

Steve Aspey, SY "Melika"

Trinidad

info@noonsite.com

Robert and Dorothy Tull write: Steve, I know right now you are sitting in Trinidad and getting concerned about a Pacific crossing. This is natural. If you were intending to head across next year you should already be on your way to Panama, seeing as you are not, I guess you are considering 2008. You should get to Cartegena by Christmas, or better still, the San Blas Islands.

Don't get too concerned about El Nino. Every year the crossing is different. Some years good winds, some years not so good. Spend your time before then, readying your boat, and learning how to fix it. The amount of boats that arrived in Tahiti and did not realize their American electrical systems could not be plugged in to the French system! This is basic knowledge and the right transformer should be on board before you leave.

Sails are important. Have good sails and back-ups if a sail goes on the way. Carry plenty of food, spare parts and be able to make water with back-up capability. (We had two water makers - small, but enough for our use). Don't worry too much about the weather. Be knowledgeable about it, sail in a safe manner, have plenty of charts, and good anchorage systems. Enjoy everything you can. Believe me, other things will go wrong. The weather becomes a minor concern as long as you sail during the right months for each crossing. The Marquesas are only a part of the trip across the Pacific.

We enjoyed our circumnavigation during the 90's and people talked then about El Nino affecting the weather. Maybe it did, who knows. It could have just been a coincidence. By the end of our trip, we were carrying a lot of fuel on board. We never used it all, but it felt great to know it was there.

All the best, and safe harbors.

Vincent writes: I sailed from The Galapagos to Nuku Hiva in my 13m Ron Holland in July 1997. It was the final year of that set and I guess probably waning. The infra red satellite shots showed the red warm water band extending at ninety degrees at the top end of the Humboldt Current right out along the equator, almost as far as the Marquesas. This equated with the lack of sea life in that our usual daily catch of tuna or Mahi Mahi was reduced to three to four days. We saw very few dolphins and no whales on this leg, so marine life had obviously departed for cooler waters.

We had consistent SSE at 16 knots for most of the passage, but it seemed to me to be a little more round on the port quarter than it would be in a normal year. Also there was a cross sea (possibly the cross currents you refer to) which, whilst we were making eight to nine knots most of the time, made it quite lumpy. So much so, that four days out one of my crew was thrown across the galley and fractured three ribs on the nav table! Rather than turn back and beat into that weather, we reduced sail and carried on to Nuku Hiva. We still made eight knots and completed the 3200nm passage in nineteen days - a good time! The sun shone the whole trip and we arrived in Taiohae Bay in a glorious sunrise.

Trust this is of some interest and help to others planning the crossing.

Jimmy Cornell writes: Most of what you say about El Nino is correct... but I don't think the situation is as bad as all that. For a start you may not have W winds on the way to Galapagos except maybe nearer the islands. The Easter island diversion is certainly worth considering, and would make a very interesting stop. What I suggest is that you contact mcdavitt@metservice.com who is a leading New Zealand meteorologist and ask his advice. He advised me on my latest passage from Galapagos to Marquesas and was spot on. He charges modest fees, so well worth it. Tell him I recommend him. He is a great guy!