El Niño Predicted For End Of 2006

Created by doina. Last modified on 2006-08-17 12:10:10
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Topic: Environment

The website of the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has reported that there is a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.

Equatorial surface and subsurface temperature anomalies increased during July 2006, with SST anomalies greater than +0.5C observed in most of the equatorial Pacific between 130ºE and 140ºW. As a result, positive SST anomalies were observed in all of the Niño regions. Positive upper-ocean heat content anomalies are usually a precursor to warm (El Niño) episodes.

The statistical and coupled model forecasts range from ENSO-neutral (ENSO: El Niño Southern Oscillation) to weak warm (El Niño) episode conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into early 2007. The forecasts are consistent with the recent build up in upper-ocean heat content along the equator, indicating a trend toward warm-episode conditions. In the absence of any strong intraseasonal activity, a continued slow trend toward warm-episode conditions is expected. Therefore, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 September 2006. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, send an e-mail message: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov

"El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions":http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center